The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has revised its long-term air passenger traffic growth estimates downwards.
IATA estimates that by 2034, airlines worldwide will transport 7 billion passengers, double the 3.5 billion projected for this year, based on an average annual growth rate of 3.8%. Previously, IATA estimated that the number of passengers carried by airlines would grow by an average of 4.1% per year to reach 7.4 billion passengers in 2034.
IATA cites the slowdown of the Chinese economy as the primary reason for revising its forecasts. IATA estimates that by 2029, China will overtake the US as the world’s largest air transport market, and by 2034, China will account for 1.19 billion passengers compared to 1.16 billion for the US. India, Indonesia, and Brazil will follow in the rankings.
Additionally, over the next 20 years, aviation is expected to support 105 million jobs, up from 58 million today, and will contribute $6 trillion to the global economy.
Source: Economica
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did IATA lower its passenger growth forecast?
The primary reason for the downward revision is the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which impacts global air traffic projections.
When is China expected to become the world’s largest aviation market?
IATA predicts that China will overtake the United States as the largest air transport market by the year 2029.
What is the projected economic impact of aviation in the next 20 years?
Aviation is expected to support 105 million jobs and contribute approximately $6 trillion to the global economy by 2034.